巴菲特大盤指標 Buffett's measure - total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP

發表於 2013-2-17 08:27

i've got emails that suggest shiller pe fans to sell usa stocks. now buffett rule=101.9 >100

----------------------------------------------

The New Buffett Rule: Equities Are Overvalued

on 02/15/2013 17:17 -0500

Based on Heinz' new best friend from Omaha's "best single measure of where valuations stand at any given momen," US equities are now over-valued for the first time since 2007. Buffett's measure - the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP - as Cullen Roche indicates on Bloomberg's Chart of the Day, crossed 100% this week into stretched territory. As Gurufocus notes, this implies a mere return of around 3.3% annualized (including dividends) ove rthe folowing years - though as is clear from the chart below - the ride is extremely bumpy...