以世界銀行 最新 GDP 預測, 看 2013 年 投資策略 7

發表於 2013-1-23 00:18

Q: 請教一下ALLAN桑, 美國的歷史本益比在哪可查, 想算一下ACPE, 一直沒找到, 感謝! A: 一開始, 我用 ycharts.com   s&p500 historical pe ratio. 後來, 發現根本不必算, 因 acpe 的原著作者 rober shiller (yale 大學教授) 自己有 website 且 他 fans 每天幫你計算 acpe(10y) for s&p500 目前  Current Shiller PE Ratio: 22.78 +0.03(0.13%) 10:45am EST, Tue Jan 22                           Mean:       16.46      Median:       15.87      Min:       4.78       (Dec 1920)      Max:       44.20       (Dec 1999)    strategy , 類似巴菲特大盤指標 ------------------------------------------------------ basedon the ratio of the current CAPE10 to the long term average CAPE10: §  Significantly Overvalued (SO): such as if the ratio >=150% §  Modestly Overvalued (MO): such as if   117%<=  ratio < 150% §  Fairly Valued (FV): such as if 83% <= ratio < 117% §  Modestly Undervalued (MU): such as if 67% <= ratio< 83% §  Significantly Undervalued (SU): such as if ratio < 67% Thesefive categories are determined by four valuation parameters (such as 150%,117%, 83% and 67% in the above). At each rebalancing (adjusting) period (suchas weekly or monthly), the strategy decides at what region the US stock marketvaluation is and then does the following rebalancing: §  SO: 0% in stock, 100% in cash. §  MO: 25% in stock, 75% in cash. §  FV: 50% in stock, 50% in cash §  MU: 75% in stock, 25% in cash §  SU: 100% in stock, 0% in cash -------------------------------------------------------------------- 目前 s&P 500 ratio=138.39  屬 MO  , 有一點貴了 (用dr wang acpe-3y , s&p500 也是 有一點貴)