2013年6月28日 星期五

要放空,,不如做多相反的產品 (或者投資,有放空的公司).---SHYANG 金融自修之路

最近在我們的股票投資  FB 社團大家談到了理專的一些事情.. SHYANG 分享他的經驗..我從他的分享當中..有一些感想..想跟各位網友分享


1.     shyang 是理工高科技人才有關金融的一些事情..都是因為興趣的關係..自修 得到的..我覺得他的程度..應該比金融專科的人(就像一些理財專員)要強許多,,我猜測他自修的方法.就是不斷的閱讀和思考..我要勉勵各位網友..有興趣這一方面的..要像SHYANG一樣.不斷充實自己.讀一讀基金公司的年報..來學習專業經理人的想法,,真的,,天道酬勤,,功不唐捐..看看 shyang,,他的績效,,都是三倍五倍 10 ,,,真是十分厲害

2.     shyang 提到的 如果要放空,,不如做多相反的產品 (或者投資,有放空的公司)..因為放空的風險..理論上是無限做多的風險相對比較少….這個想法我覺得很好

3.     正如之前.我跟各位分享我相信買賣股票高手很多..但在這些高手當中..願意分享..而且是免費分享..我覺得不多..SHYANG  就是這樣一個可貴的人鼓勵大家要多多跟他學習(參加臉書社團 or 瀏覽他的部落格)

4.     在討論當中..因為中文輸入比較困難..有一段是用英文對談..網友覺得看不懂.. SHYANG 也很熱心的幫他翻譯出來..從這些細微的動作..我覺得他真的非常的熱情.親切.謙虛..very kind ,,and so NICE…  我真的覺得很棒

我把這些臉書資料拷貝下來一方面我可以常常複習 ( FB 的主題很快就會沉下去,,常常找不到),,另一方面也要跟各位網友做分享..還是老話一句..我得到好處..也希望各位朋友得到好處

再一次祝福大家,,, 事事順心,,天天愉快


shayng 推薦
 Prof. Damodaran Valuation Coporate Finance是有免Video, homework, classnotes的-----http://www.symynd.com/#


from shyang
 位理專還年前國時第一位理先生由他老來見要我世界資銀行的公司位理大概實習當時一直想來講一定的比流利。』實當時我正在研究如何做空貸債只好耐心只差沒問他如何做空貸債我希望實習來沒出事

Allan Lin 做空貸債 ,,, ..

SAM 當時聽說 Michael Burry CDS放空房地產債劵 被客戶罵 上了 所以想跟 最後發現Fairfax Financial Prem Watsa 了一堆CDS 就去大大加Fairfax Financial 我能在2008 資產損失的百分比是的主要原因....

Allan Lin shyang ,,, 在我的朋友,,叫我放空倍日元,, 放空美,,,你的想法怎麼樣?

SAM不敢,做工作就benchmark, 也是考大,

Allan Lin 考大---> gurufocus?

SAM "叫我放空倍日元,, 放空美?" 放空, 寧願寓放空於做多, 我是寓放空房貸債 於做多CDS, 放空風險太大,假如辜朝明是 放空美 幹這種事最好外包 Prem Watsa.

SAM Make a list of Guru from gurufocus and read their annual/quater reports is best.

Allan Lin 寧願寓放空於做多, 我是寓放空房貸債 於做多CDS, ??? 這個

Allan Lin 寧願寓放空於做多??? ,放空日元...==做多美元??? 這樣對

Allan Lin shyang.... read their annual/quater reports is best...這樣會時間 ..股票已一段??

SAM CDS is transferable insruace for mortgage bond. So when mortage bond price crashes, then CDS price will increase. Now to buy CDS you need to have some special license to trade against companies like Goldman Sachs. I then found out that Fairfax financial already bought a bunch of CDS. Since there is no way I can get better commission than Fairfax Financial in buying CDS, I just buy Fairfax financial.

Allan Lin shyang ,,, 這個想法很好... 非常有趣 (CDS.....)

SAM If I want to sell short Japanese Yen, I would just go find a hedge fund or a insurance company that has sold short Japanese Yen. I doubt as small investors we can get good enough commision rate to compete against people like Fairfax. I believe Kyle Bass's hedge fund actually short Japanese Yen.

Allan Lin 最後發現Fairfax Financial Prem Watsa 了一堆CDS 就去大大加碼Fairfax Financia----> 你如何發現 fairfax financial

Allan Lin Kyle Bass's hedge fund ----> i will check it ..3q

SAM "read their annual/quater reports is best...這樣會時間 ..股票已一段??" There are 2 reasons to do this: first, I am trying to understand the reasoning for investment, so that in the future I can identify similar opportunities. Second, typical value investing cases takes 1-2 years to work out, so one quarter typically is ok.

Allan Lin your idea is very good ,,, i think it can apply to other conditions ---- such as gold ..oil.... right?

SAM Oh, I learn about it from reading a publicaton called "outstanding investor digest." It was also in the portifolio of one of my value mutual fund, Longleaf partners fund. I owned some Fairfax Financial stock directly starting from 2005 or 2006, even before the CDS thing.

Allan Lin "outstanding investor digest."..Longleaf partners fund... ...i will google it

SAM Trading requires daily monitoring so it is best left to the "professionals." That is why I owned so much BRK and still own lots of fairfax financial, Leucadia and Markel.

Allan Lin how about sequoia fund? i follow the holdings for a period of time,,, but most of its holdings is us stocks......( i hate the 30% tax...)


SAM Many of them don't pay dividend. Capitial gain is tax free. (But I think you are looking for dividend.) Oh, you can check out Oakmark International and Longleaf International. Their holdings should be outside US. Also they tend to have only 20-40 stocks. They probably only buy 1-2 stocks a quarter so it is easy to follow.

Allan Lin shyang ,,thank you so much ,,, you are so kind ,,,,,---Oakmark International and Longleaf International.

Allan Lin shyang do you mind that i share your ideas on my blog?,,, there are two reasons ..i. i can review it 2. my friendS can also learn these very good ideas..... your experience is very precious.. we benefit greatly by your talk

SAM Oh, I don't mind. 別氣. Oakmark剛退休的Director of ResearchBerghoffBerghoff是在Geico工作Geico當年的CIO, Lou Simpson的副手 臺灣得到Oarkmark fund要手

Allan Lin THANKS AGAIN 

SAM 抱歉我急起改用英文打字 等一下翻中文好了 是在外待的 所以多中文的對應專有名是什我也不知道

SAM要直接做空券不容易得去那來賣CDS是可以轉讓券保因此當債格因信用差而崩跌CDS格反而上升然後要購買CDS你需要有一些特殊的交易照才能跟像高盛這樣的公司做交易我一小散去那這種執? 發現Fairfax Financial經買了一堆的CDS既然法直接買CDS而且就算可以我也不可能得到比Fairfax Financial更低的佣金因此我就買Fairfax Financial

SAM 如果我想做空日元乾脆去找一做空日元的對沖基金或是做空日元的保公司疑作中小投可以得到像Fairfax Financial低的佣金我相信Kyle Bass對沖基金是有做空日元 這裡個討論http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/betting-against-jgbs/msg108545/#msg108545

Allan Lin 謝 shyang

SAM 注意是Kyle Bass做空日本政府 不是直接做空日

SAM閱讀的年以及季是最好的”......”這樣會時間..股票已一段”這樣做有2個原因第一試圖要了解投的背後的原這樣將來我可以自己找到似的機會其次在典型的值投的情從購入到一般需要1-2年的時間所以慢一季度通常是OK




 我是在閱讀“出投者文摘(Outstanding Investor Digest)”這份刊物看到的此外我所持有的一個從值投的共同基金--長葉夥伴基金(Longleaf Partners fund)的持股也有它甚至在CDS的事情之前從2005年或2006我也直接持有一些Fairfax Financial的股票




需要每天控的交易工夫最好是留給“專業人士”來就是去持有這麼BRK在仍然持有大量的Fairfax FinancialLeucadia NatonalMarkel



 這些持股有不支付金股利本利得是免但我想你在找的是金股利你可以去查Oakmark InternationalLongleaf Partners International的持股的持股應該是在美境外的公司此外往往只有20-40支持股每一季他可能只購買1-2所以很容易去

 翻完了 希望比google翻得好

長葉夥伴基金(Longleaf Partners fund)工是只能投自家的基金的得是避免東們利益 此外如果金太多是不收新客 Longleaf Partner Small Cap fund好像已十多年收新客

Allan Lin SHYANG 謝... 你的中文翻的真好.....GOOGLE 哈哈哈..你在

SAM 是的   "outstanding investor digest.".   是收的刊物 我的文章中有稍微介紹 http://tjdad.blogspot.tw/?zx=1d7f30775c064962



我的投英雄的最後一封的信 Cummings and Steinberg compounded Book value of Leucadia @ 18.2% per year from 1979 till 2012. https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/527288/20130605/AR_173639.PDF

 Cummings and Steinberg 今年要退休了 最後一封的信 中回 的投生涯

 Leucadia National Fairfax Financial 還 Markel 常被叫做 Baby Berkshires Leucadia National Berkshire Hathaway 不一的是一不做保險 沒 Float來 Leucadia National 專門 Out of favor的行後再 Cummings and Steinberg基本上不見記 跟股通管道就是年中的的信


 Fairfax Financial under Prem Watsa compounded book value at 22.7% per year from 1985 to 2012http://fairfax.ca/files/Letter%20to%20Shareholders%20from%20Annual%20Report%202012%20FINAL_v001_o7033s.pdf

Allan Lin Baby Berkshires 厲

SAM有一家小公司叫DJCO Charlie Munger Guerin 掌管投資 2003 BV per share =$4.53 2012 BV per share =$63.17 These two are selected by Buffett as Superinvestors of Graham-and Doddville. They are really good, are they not?

 By the way, Fairfax financial right now is trading at 1.02 time Price/Book value.

 DJCO的所報紙 但是是刊跟法律相的公告不是很有競爭的一般報紙業 多出 Charlie Munger Guerin所以投本利得 有定 最近已經貴

 不敢高手 我有不少投是在 Fairfax, Markel and Leucadia 都是趁在股跌破時買些股票如果跌破值一般是不買點 Leucadia 有不少 Goodwill 最好等到 Tangible Book Value. 是外

 Prof. Damodaran Valuation Coporate Finance是有免Video, homework, classnotes 如果讀書會之後意可以去逛逛

 這個Prof. Damodaran 的官趣挖的朋友可以挖出不少西http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

Allan Lin 謝 shyang 的分享...


你可以同時參

個從未在股市中虧過錢的人------ shyang 部落格介



zippy (SHYANG) 來訪,,,…. 再一次推薦 SHYANG 的部落








8 則留言:

  1. 慘嚕= =

    雖然翻譯中文

    可是還是看不懂QQ

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  2. hi 佑佑兄:

    不要急
    不懂就Google一下

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  3. Dear Allan
    where we can buy Fairfax financial? in USA stock market?..is this one?
    http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/stocks/tools/analysis_tools.asp?symbol=FRFHF

    TK

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    回覆
    1. Hi TK :
      yes.
      i find Fairfax financial
      on OTC ---> FRFHF (ADR)

      FFH ---->toronto se (canadian stock)


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    2. BTW

      I chcek the stock price OF Fairfax financial

      shyang has >300% (capital gain + dividends) profit since june 2006

      He is very good at value investment.

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    3. Dear Allan
      I went to http://www.symynd.com/#
      do I need to enroll it if I want to access his lecture (video and slide materials..)?
      as I failed to get slide content..

      Thank you very much
      >Prof. Damodaran 的 Valuation 跟 Coporate Finance的課是有免費的Video, homework, classnotes的-----http://www.symynd.com/#

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    4. I forgot to say thank about your previous reply.
      the stock price OF Fairfax financial is so high.....to buy in..

      TK

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    5. HI TK:

      THIS IS FOR YOU

      http://allanlin998.blogspot.tw/2013/06/value-investment-prof-damodaran.html

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