(以下為學術討論,沒有任何鼓勵,要約的意思,個人投資,需要獨立判斷,注意風險)
本網頁資料僅供研究參考用途，任何資料均不應視為對買賣證券之投資建議。
chien
phil 已針對您的文章「樂活投資
ETF
(基金)
的方法
(8)----
送給大家三朵花—-有錢花,盡量花,
隨便花」留下新意見：
OH...Ya 看到第八篇了
回頭從第一篇複習起
OH...Ya 看到第八篇了
回頭從第一篇複習起
HI
CHIEN:
加油加油
不過你也不用心急
我所有的文章,
都是在為這個觀念,
做實驗
在這裏沒有商業利益衝突,大家可以看
ALLAN 用真金白銀做實驗
不論結果是什麼(正報酬OR
負報酬),
大家都可以檢討,討論,
這樣才是科學
我想跟各位分享,
安本
新興市場股票基金操盤人 – DEVAN
KALOO , 剩下的一些看法,
1.首先他認為中國不會有金融風暴,
要注意內需的產業
FROM 智富月刊 5 月號
2.俄羅斯,
匯率
AND
股票被OVER
SOLD
FROM
智富月刊 5 月號
- 結論就是均值回歸... …..風險會轉移到 漲價太多的國家...
我今天買進
LUKOIL , SBERBANK... 因為美國
ADR 在 OTC
交易,
國內的複委託買不到 ,
後來我發現倫敦股市,
可以買到
GDR ….
LUKOIL
是 MIKE
CHANG 推薦的
SBERBANK
是 新加坡網友 EUGENE
推薦的
謝謝他們
他們的本益比都在 4X-5X ,PBR AROUD=0.5 .. DIVIDEND YIELD ESTIMTED= 3.71%. 5.83% RESPECTIVELY
最近
, MEBANE FABER 出了一本新書,
Global Value: How to Spot Bubbles, Avoid Market Crashes, and Earn Big Returns in the Stock Market
利用 CAPE
. 把整個投資 流程,
寫的非常清楚
這是我跟大家分享的,
薛教授的做法,,, 就是
MEBANE FABER 的做法,
一模一樣
FROM
薛教授的做法, 事實上跟我學習到 MEBANE
FABER SOP 一模一樣,
先對基本面作分析, 再利用動能指標, 作為買賣策略
介紹MEBANE FABER 以CAPE + RELATIVE STRENGTH投資全球股市策略 -1
http://allanlin998.blogspot.tw/2013/02/mebane-faber-cape-relative-strength-1.html共有17篇文章, 各位可以按
較新的文章... 一篇一篇看
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他從 1980-
2013... 績效大於 BUY
AND HOLD (FROM GLOBAL VALUE)
當然要注意,
OUTLIER , 所以要做一個 BASKET
, 一組國家 , 而不是一個國家. 以免被
OUTLIER 拖垮績效 (FROM GLOBAL VALUE)
我當時搜尋到 MEBANE
FABER 的做法, 十分的高興,
我現在所有的觀念,
都是香港王教授 SHILLER
教授, MEBANE FABER ,
他們教導我的,
Hi, Allan，Mebane Faber 的操作策略跟您說的完全相同
回覆刪除反市場操作(低價格買進)+一組投資組合(分散風險)
永遠是投資不敗法則
以下是他的親身說法(以俄羅斯為例)，參考參考 ^_^
Many times on this blog I’ve mentioned that for every investing strategy there needs to be a fundamental reason why it works. A basic, “explain to your 12 year old niece reason why it works”. Value investing, at its most basic, is buying $1 for $.80 (or less than intrinsic value). Most of the alpha out there (or smart beta or whatever it is being called these days) is either hard to find or hard to DO. And by do, I mean it goes against everything your behavioral instincts tell you to do. Buying a stock at all time highs is hard to do, and one reason momentum and trend work. Buying a value investment is hard for many reasons, a few of which I outline below with a very relevant current example, Russian stocks.
1. All of the headlines are negative.
2. The investment has declined, usually by A LOT.
3. All of the trailing fundamentals are really bad.
4. People can find many reasons why “this time is different” for the value metrics not to be reflective of the current situation.
5. There is a non-zero risk of the investment going to zero.
6. It is not popular (or patriotic) to own the investment.
7. Buying the investment, and it going down more, would pose serious career risk. (or divorce risk).
8. The banking consensus is all sell rated.
9. Flows are out.
Russia checks all of these boxes and then some.
For the same reason we recommend to never put all your eggs in one basket with a single stock, the same goes for countries too. If you plan on value investing with countries it makes sense to buy a basket rather than just one or two. As was the case with Greece going to a CAPE of 2 in 2012, Russia could easily get cut in half again. But secular bears set the stage for secular bulls, and vice versa. Off to pizza in Phoenix.
March 26th, 2014 by Meb Faber
hi dr bee:
刪除謝謝你的分享
我的感觸很深
我會寫文章跟您分享
hi dr bee:
刪除參考參考
http://allanlin998.blogspot.tw/2014/05/blog-post_7.html
Hi Allan,
回覆刪除謝謝介紹Faber的新書....
書上有介紹一個online CAPE calculator:
www.caperatio.com , 找機會來試玩看看....
FYI.
hi asabuchi:
刪除3q 3q
hi asabuchi:
刪除3q 3q