股息現金流被動收入理財的心路歷程: shiller pe 的搜尋結果

針對查詢「shiller pe」依關聯性排序顯示文章。依日期排序顯示所有文章

2013年10月21日星期一

呼叫.呼叫勁贏兄,,, Nicholas 有S&P500河流圖送給你----S&P 500河流圖提供下載

from Nicholas

PE
ratio 2009波動太大..shiller PE比較有參考性

2013年11月5日星期二

從巴菲特 2001 年的歷史文獻評估道瓊工業指數 ETF(DIA)---- 利率很重要, 股票就是偽裝的債卷

巴菲特在 2001 DEC,,的歷史文獻, http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/

2013年3月2日星期六

以 SHILLER PE 策略, 投資 S&P500 ETF(SPY ,IVV,VOO)

( DISCLAIMER: I AM JSUT ONE OF THE ROBER SHILLER (ACPE) FANS ,
因美股退稅的不確定性, SO I DON'T HAVE USA STOCKS,資訊只供學術研究,個人投資,須獨立判斷)

有關 shiller pe 可參考
http://allanlin998.blogspot.tw/2013/02/mebane-faber-cape-relative-strength-1.html

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Shiller pe strategy (from www.myplaniq.com)

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based on the ratio of the current CAPE10 to the long term average CAPE10:
§  Significantly Overvalued (SO): such as if the ratio >=150%
§  Modestly Overvalued (MO): such as if 117%<=  ratio < 150%
§  Fairly Valued (FV): such as if 83% <= ratio < 117%
§  Modestly Undervalued (MU): such as if 67% <= ratio< 83%
§  Significantly Undervalued (SU): such as if ratio < 67%

These five categories are determined by four valuation parameters (such as 150%,117%, 83% and 67% in the above). At each rebalancing (adjusting) period (suchas weekly or monthly), the strategy decides at what region the US stock market   valuation is and then does the following rebalancing:
§  SO: 0% in stock, 100% in cash.
§  MO: 25% in stock, 75% in cash.
§  FV: 50% in stock, 50% in cash
§  MU: 75% in stock, 25% in cash
§  SU: 100% in stock, 0% in cash

喜歡美股 ETF 的朋友, 可用SHILLER PE 策略, 投資 S&P500 ETF(SPY ,IVV,VOO)

利用本網站
最下方 SHILLER PE (update every day)

2013-3-1 37.6% HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SHILLER PE ===137.6%, 屬Modestly Overvalued (MO):

SO YOU BUY 25% in stock, 75% in cash.

依據 myplaniq.com, buy wfvk =Wilshire 5000 total return index etf

rebalance weekly
to 2013-2-28 , back test return

2014年1月13日星期一

ETF 的價值投資法---- 利用國家指數 PER .PBR, DIVIDEND YIELD ..MSCI COUNTRY INDEX 曾氏通道, 買賣 ETF (基金) 策略, 以歐洲基金為例

我是在2011年年底到2012年年初, 巧遇到香港王澤基教授的 ACPE, 我是一個金融門外漢, 每樣事情,

我都會思考, 並計算運用, PE 這麼簡單的想法, 對我來說,是非常新的東西, Pe有用嗎？PE為什麼有用?

這些學習金融本業的人, 認為最基本的東西的, 根本就不會問的問題, 對我而言, 事實上是十分陌生的領域

2013年2月3日星期日

以世界銀行最新 GDP 預測, 看 2013 年投資策略 15

發表於 2013-2-3 17:32

實際上, SHILLER PE(10Y) 早被各投資顧問所採用,

如 MEBANE FABER ( THE IVY PORTFOLIO 作者 )

主持 Cambria Investment Management, Inc ,

專門服務高資產客戶 ,

他也計算過 GLOBAL SHILLER PE , 並以

SHILLER PE <15 以下, 買入此國 ETF , SHILLER PE>30 賣出 ETF

為策略

依 2012APRIL SHILLER PE DATA

中國仍便宜(NOW , SSE INDEX 即將突破一年高點,預期會再創新高)

2013年10月28日星期一

比較巴菲特大盤指數 (TMC/GNP) and shiller pe 河流圖. 評估美國 s&p500 index ---你可以像巴菲特一樣說 BUY AMERICAN , I AM

(以下為學術討論,沒有任何鼓勵,要約的意思,個人投資,需要獨立判斷,注意風險)

今年九月. 巴菲特接受 cnbc主持人 becky quick, 訪問, 他說, 美國股票市場, 目前還沒有很貴

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101048419

Warren Buffett on CNBC: Stocks now 'more or less fairly priced'

2013年2月4日星期一

Mebane Faber---- CAPE

實際上, SHILLER PE(10Y) 早被各投資顧問所採用,

如 MEBANE FABER ( THE IVY PORTFOLIO 作者 )

主持 Cambria Investment Management, Inc ,

專門服務高資產客戶 ,

他也計算過 GLOBAL SHILLER PE , 並以

SHILLER PE <15 以下, 買入此國 ETF , SHILLER PE>30 賣出 ETF

為策略

http://etfdb.com/2013/going-global-evaluating-foreign-investments-with-cape/

Going Global: Evaluating Foreign Investments With CAPE

by STOYAN BOJINOV on FEBRUARY 4, 2013 | ETFs Mentioned: CAPE

While investors remain understandably leery about the economic environment in the new year, many are looking to various corners of the market for more meaningful and stable returns. Mebane Faber, Portfolio Manager at Cambria Investment Management and co-founder of AlphaClone, recently took the time to discuss which trends investors are likely to see developing in 2013 and how the innovative CAPE ratio can help investors pick more promising investments [see Free Report: How To Pick The Right ETF Every Time].

ETF Databse (ETFdb): Looking further in 2013, what are the two or three most compelling macroeconomic themes that you see developing?

Mebane Faber (MF): We have spent a lot of time thinking about how investors

approach the equity markets. Many investors come from a market capitalization standpoint or have a home country bias, which causes these investors to overweight the biggest countries or their home country. We started searching for a better way of building an index of countries. By applying the Shiller cyclically adjusted 10-year price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) to over 40 countries we did find a way to gain exposure to countries based on valuation, instead of pure market cap weighting [see Never Judge An ETF By Its Cover].

ETFdb: Can you just give a brief explanation of the CAPE ratio and why you follow it?

MF: The concept of smoothing earnings over multiple years is nearly 70 years old and goes back to Graham and Dodd. Robert Shiller popularized the theory with a paper and his book “Irrational Exuberance” in the 1990s, where he focused on smoothing earnings over 10 years and then adjusting for inflation. This helps to smooth out the peaks and valleys that normally happen over the course of a full business cycle. The typical CAPE ratio is between 15 and 20, with bubbles occurring around 30 and bottoming out around seven.

ETFdb: From a risk-reward perspective, should risk tolerant investors focus in on domestic equities or foreign ones?

MF: From a traditional standpoint of the U.S. investor there are a number of factors to

consider. The U.S. market, by most standards, is trading at an overvalued level featuring a CAPE ratio of 21, which is on the more expensive side. But if you look to foreign countries, many are trading at lower levels, for example, Greece, Ireland, Italy and many other European nations that are recovering from economic slumps are trading at record low levels and could offer great potential returns for U.S. investors [see Ex-U.S. Portfolio ].

ETFdb: In your opinion, which regions or countries offer the most lucrative investment cases and why? Are there specific ETFs that you prefer for accessing these?

MF: We always recommend buying a basket of countries to even out your risks and returns. But at the country level both Greece and Ireland are trading at CAPE ratios below five, which has historically led to very strong returns for the next five to even 10 years. There are also countries like Russia, Austria, Italy and Belgium that are trading at CAPE ratios under 10, which makes now a great time to invest.

ETFdb: What are the noteworthy risks surrounding the opportunities highlighted above?

MF: Greece is a perfect example, because at one point it was trading at a CAPE ratio of 10, and an investor could have called that the bottom, but they would have lost when the ratio fell to two. Value investing takes on the behavioral biases of people selling assets when they are down. You can lose a lot of money trying to catch the bottoms, which is partly why we recommend a basket of countries instead of just one. Investors also need to look out for P/E ratio compression because of high inflation rates, because these funds might look appealing but in a rising inflation environment they are not. We also follow trends, set maximum P/E ratios, and use other practical tools when forming a portfolio [see also Inflation ETF Special: 25 ETF Ideas To Fight Rising Prices].

Bottom Line: When choosing where to park your investments, whether it be domestically or abroad, a great tool to use is the CAPE ratio, as it places an emphasis on valuation instead of traditional cap-weighting. Investors should, however, be mindful of the level of diversification that foreign equity ETFs offer, as this will play a big role in the risk/return profile of the investment.

Follow me on Twitter @SBojinov

2014年4月23日星期三

樂活投資 ETF (基金) 的方法 ( 1 )----不要買錯，不要買貴(保持安全邊際)

rigel cheng 已針對您的文章「熱烈歡迎巴小智來訪, 部落格聯播, tivo 教授要鼓勵大家學習, 有禮物要送給你--- 00...」留下新意見：

1. 不要買錯--- 你就選擇國家的 etf or 國家的基金
2. 不要買貴(保持安全邊際) --- 就可以利用股市地圖 and 全球股市 gps and 曾氏通道, kama b b band沒錯沒錯，就是這麼簡單。
不用花太多時間，心情不會隨股市上下起伏，省下的時間可以好好照顧家人。
謝謝艾倫大善人的分享。

2013年11月4日星期一

基金(ETF)買賣.最合理的策略-- 便宜的時候買,貴的時候賣,, 停損或停利??

SAM "很多網友,都很在意評估出來的結果,相差多少,我的觀念比較不一樣,我看到的是,這個方法可以買到相對低點.賣在相對高點,這個就太厲害了,就像是呂大帥哥同學教我們的. Blash ----buy low and sell high.我只要買到相對低點,賣在相對高點,只要是正報酬,加上複利作用,大家放心,資產很快就會翻一倍,真的很可怕"